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Este artículo ha sido marcado como molesto Deshacer
Advisor
00:08 el 30 diciembre 2013

¡¡Feliz 2014!!

 A un día para finalizar el 2013 ya podemos ir deseando un buen 2014 y plantearnos si el 2013 ha cumplido con las previsiones esperadas. Según Rajoy el año ha cerrado mejor de lo que se esperaba (aunque un crecimiento del 0,1% del PIB no sirve de mucho) y 2014 va a ser mucho mejor que 2013.

 El año cierra con menos parados que cuando empezó (aunque se debe sobre todo a que han emigrado casi 400.000 ciudadanos en edad de trabajar a otros países y esos ya no van a volver a renovar el paro).

 Se han hecho reformas económicas (aunque la de la administración pública y el cierre de empresas públicas ineficaces se niegan a hacerla).

 El ibex cierra su mejor año de los últimos 4 años (pero claro, los tres anteriores cerraron en rojo).

 El SP500 lleva cinco años espectaculares y el Nasdaq cierra el año con casi un 40% de revalorización (la bolsa de nueva york ha sido el principal receptor y beneficiado de los QE y a ver que pasa cuando se terminen).

 Aunque hay opiniones para todos los gustos, esperemos que efectivamente las cosas mejoren sobre todo en España que falta nos hace.

¿Cuales son vuestras previsiones para el 2014?

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10 comentarios
3 veces compartido

La primera señal de que 2013 ha sido un poco mejor de lo esperado es que este año ya no se hace el típico chiste de los últimos años, el de felicitar el año que venía después del nuevo. Nadie me ha dicho todavía ¡Feliz...2015! Lo digo en broma, pero también en serio. 

Al final, muestra que a nuestro alrededor se empieza a ver signos de mejoría, aunque muy pocos, como corresponde a una economía que está empezando a recuperar.

Yo también creo que 2014 va a ser el inicio de la recuperación, a no ser que tengamos algún shock externo que dispare de nuevo la desconfianza en las entidades financieras y, esta es la gran amenaza para España, la prima de riesgo.

Cierto que no se ha acometido la reforma de las administraciones, pero también que el sector público lleva unos cuantos años sin contratar. Y sí hay gente que se va jubilando. Por lo tanto, también hay una racionalización de facto impuesta por la ausencia de euros en las arcas.

El empleo, todos sabemos que es un indicador retrasado. Cuando haya crecimiento llegará, y no al revés.

Y, como dice Kike Vázquez en este gran artículo, sí tenemos algo que celebrar este 2013: la confirmación de que nos hemos vuelto un país muy competitivo en muy poco tiempo. Esta medicina está amarga a corto plazo, pero es la mejor para recuperar la salud.

 

Espero un Feliz 2014 para todo el Mundo , pero especialmente para  España, creo que no será muy dificil que sea mejor que el 2013, donde se ha pasado bastante mal.

A nivel bursatil, ya es más dificil que pueda ser mejor , pues el casi 33 % de rentabilidad, no creo que vuelva a conseguirlo hasta el próximo ciclo, pues según mis estimaciones ahora toca un año bursatil más dificil , entre un 10 - 14 % de rentabiliodad, según mis estimaciones cíclicas de beneficios, que bien es verdad nunca se cumplen exactamente, pues los ciclos dependen mucho de mi forma de gestionar.

Lo dicho, espero hayais tenido una Feliz Navidad y que el 2014 os Colme de Alegrias

Michael Lombardi: "The Great Crash of 2014" ( vídeo presentación).

Para gustos los colores; su alarmante carta reza así...

---

Dear Reader:
 
A stock market crash bigger than what happened in
2008 and early 2009 is headed our way.
 
In fact, we are predicting this crash will be even more
devastating than the 1929 crash...
 
...the ramifications of which will hit the economy and
Americans deeper than anything we've ever seen.
 
Our 27-year-old research firm feels so strongly about
this, we've just produced a video to warn investors called,
"The Great Crash of 2014."
 
In case you are not familiar with our research work
on the stock market:
 
In late 2001, in the aftermath of 9/11, we told our
clients to buy small-cap stocks. They rose about 100% after
we made that call.
 
We were one of the first major advisors to turn bullish
on gold. Throughout 2002, we urged our readers to buy gold
stocks; many of which doubled and even tripled in price.
 
In November of 2007, we started begging our customers
to get out of the stock market. Shortly afterwards, it was widely
recognized that October 2007 was the top for stocks.
 
We correctly predicted the crash in the stock market of 
2008 and early 2009.
 
And in March of 2009, we started telling our readers to
jump into small caps. The Russell 2000 gained about 175%
from when we made that call in 2009 to today.
 
Many investors will find our next prediction hard to
believe until they see all the proof we have to back it up.
Even if you don't own stocks, what's about to happen will
affect you!
 
I urge you to be among the first to get our next major
prediction.
 
See it here now in this just-released alarming video.
 
Yours truly,
 
Michael Lombardi, MBA
Founder
Lombardi Publishing Corporation
News, Analysis and Information Services since 1986 
 
---
 
Copyright 2013; Lombardi Publishing Corporation. All rights
reserved. No part of this e-newsletter may be used or reproduced
in any manner or means, including print, electronic, mechanical,
or by any information storage and retrieval system whatsoever,
without written permission from the copyright holder.
 
---
 
Dear Reader: There is no magic formula to getting rich. 
Success in investment vehicles with the best prospects for 
price appreciation can only be achieved through proper and 
rigorous research and analysis. The opinions herein 
are just that, opinions of the authors. Information contained 
herein, while believed to be correct, is not guaranteed as 
accurate. Warning: Investing often involves high risks and 
you can lose a lot of money. Please do not invest with money 
you cannot afford to lose.
 
---
 
LOMBARDI PUBLISHING CORPORATION
News, Analysis, and Information Services Since 1986. 
One Million Customers in 141 Countries.
Financial Publications Division
350 5th Avenue, 59th Floor
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@MRDV a mi llegó hace 40 dias , la carta de Propaganda de Louis Navellier, en terminos parecidos, recomendando vender casi todos los grandes americanos y entrar en valores defensivos y preparados para la caida en unos tres meses:

 

Dear Investor,

It's time that Wall Street face the music. The days of the Federal Reserve's easy money policy are drawing to a close and that's going to have big–potentially disastrous–implications for the markets.

Meet Louis Navellier

America's Most-Respected 
Investment Advisor

For 14 years, Louis Navellier has been helping investors get rich. His time-tested approach has beaten the S&P 500 by $3-to-$1, while his individual picks have doubled investors' money as many as 28 times.

What's more, his successes have made him one of the top money managers in the world as well with over $3 billion under his direct control.

So it's no wonder that his   B lue Chip Growth service has grown to be one of the largest and most widely read investor advisories with thousands of readers in dozens of countries.

You see, for the past few years, the Fed's accommodative policies–known collectively as Quantitative Easing (QE)–have been a driving force behind the stock market. Essentially, the Fed has been pumping $85 billion into the U.S. economy each and every month–in the form of bond buying. This has helped keep interest rates low and encourage borrowing.

This Fed policy gave Corporate America the green light to rush to the bond market and borrow at ultra-low rates and put the cash towards aggressive stock buyback programs or dividend increases. And this corporate buyback frenzy has persisted as long as the Fed has kept up its end of the bargain.

As you probably know firsthand, stock buyback programs and dividend increases are great for shareholders. So many investors have banked on the continuation of the Fed's zero-interest rate policy. If you consider yourself one of those investors, I have bad news for you: Things are going to change very quickly in the next few months, and not for the better.

In fact, the Federal Reserve recently stated that it could start to cut back on bond purchases by the end of the year–and end them altogether in 2014! And now that the unemployment rate has fell to 7.3% in August, we are drawing ever closer to the 6.5% benchmark rate that signals to the Fed when it's time to pull the plug.

So if you don't act quickly, you could be caught holding the bag when the Fed announces the definitive end to Quantitative Easing.

What Will Happen When QE Ends?

If QE ends definitively, it will make all high-dividend stocks more volatile, especially mortgage REITs. What I expect would happen is that an initial shockwave would hit Wall Street. The kneejerk reactions we've seen to past Fed announcements will pale in comparison to the post-QE pullback. But that doesn't mean you have to get caught up in the panic.

You still have a choice to make.

Option #1 is to resign yourself to the market's obsession and get caught up in the selling action that will inevitably result from the end of QE.

Option #2 is to plan ahead for what's to come: A flight to quality.

I'm sticking with the second option and I recommend you do the same. The first half of 2013 belonged to the crap, if you'll pardon my language; the second half should belong to the quality. Believe it or not, the best performing stocks in the first half of the year were in the bottom 10% of market capitalization (i.e., micro caps), with the lowest dividend yields (essentially 0%), the most negative analyst earnings revisions (bottom 10%) and the highest short interest (top 10%).

That can't last. The biggest winners the last six months profited from a tremendous "short squeeze" that propelled many thinly-traded stocks higher as wave-after-wave of money flowing into index funds and ETFs caused the shorts to cover their positions, which increases institutional buying pressure. Whenever low-quality stocks lead the way and a "crap rally" occurs, the stock market historically reverses itself and a flight to quality ensues, typically within seven months.

The time for that flight to quality is approaching, so there's no time to waste. I've been running my proprietary screening tool on full blast to try to isolate the best Bernanke-proof stocks around and I've isolated eleven such names. No matter how choppy the market gets, I fully expect these stocks to benefit from the impending flight to quality.

Of course, buying is only half of the battle. With this kind of volatility on the horizon, you'll need to go over your existing positions with a fine tooth comb. So later on in this report I reveal 25 of the biggest names on Wall Street that you must sell now.

Arm Your Portfolio With These
Fed-Proof Stocks

Bulletproof Pick #1

AmerisourceBergen Co.  (ABC) is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical services companies–serving an industry that's expected to reach $370 billion to $390 billion by 2015. In other words, the profit potential stuffing. Moreover, because it helps drug makers and healthcare providers cut costs, it stands to win big from the healthcare shift that's just getting underway here in the U.S.

The company is on track to meet its 2013 financial objectives and is in a good position to generate sustainable long-term growth. AmerisourceBergen expects 2013 adjusted earnings in a range of $3.06 to $3.11 per share and between 11% to 13% sales growth. But I'm really looking forward to what comes next. By most estimates–mine included–the company is headed toward.

Just recently, the company's board approved $750 million in stock buybacks–that's on top of the $450 million or so it has left on its existing program. Even more impressively, since 2006 the company has increased its quarterly dividend nearly tenfold.

As a result, investors are being paid 1.4% per year just to hold the stock, the second highest dividend in the Wholesale Drugs industry. Between its industry leading position, its commitment to shareholders and its earnings prospects, I consider this conservative industry leader among my top healthcare picks.

Bulletproof Pick #2

Details Here

This cable giant  has built-in value that many competitors can only dream of. To start, my No. 2 pick is in the middle of a $4 billion stock buyback program, with about $2.8 billion to go. It also boasts the third highest dividend in the cable business–which it has increased fivefold over the past seven years! In total this company returned upwards of $800 million to shareholders last quarter.

And I haven't even begun to talk about this company's earnings prospects. With 15 million customers (and counting), this company has a firm handhold on the U.S. cable, data and voice market. But that doesn't mean this company is resting on its laurels. The next big push is the shift to video streaming media, and instead of denouncing the threat to traditional cable, this company is embracing the change. Recently, this company agreed to stream more than 300 live channels through Roku, the leading set-top box player.

Adding to the excitement, there's a lot of buzz right now around both a change at the top and possibly industry consolidation. So it's small wonder why U.S. funds have been scooping up shares of this stock, and why I'm recommending my  Blue Chip Growth readers do the same.

Bulletproof Pick #3

Discover Financial Holdings  (DFS) is the perfect play to cash in on rising consumer spending—which the government expects will hit $12 trillion in eight years. On top of this, the company is at the crux of another powerful trend: The surge in U.S. consumer credit. Discover is, of course, a big card issuer in the U.S. and a leading innovator in the credit card industry. At last count, Discover-brand credit cards are used by more than 25 million members!

And before long, Discover Financial will get a piece of the housing recovery–the company has just started offering home equity loans. While this isn't expected to affect earnings until next year, this is just another example of how the company has kept moving forward in the credit business.

What's more, stock gives shareholders serious bang for their buck. With a 1% annual dividend yield, DFS falls in the top 10% of all Credit Services companies. And the company is in the process of buying back $2 billion of its own stock. These kind of value-added activities will continue to entice investors no matter what the larger market is doing.

Bulletproof Pick #4

My No. 4 pick for the post-Fed market just so happens to be  one of the most exciting biotech plays around.  Just how exciting? Well, this company is working overtime to double sales by 2017! This is a pharmaceutical company specializing in cancer treatments as well as therapies for immune-inflammatory related diseases. It currently has several drugs on the market–one that treats a blood cancer that begins in the bone marrow–and a blockbuster chemotherapy treatment currently used in breast cancer patients.

Details Here

But what really excites me about this company is what's in its pipeline–this company has over 20 drugs in either late-stage development or development. With such a strong product pipeline, this biotech is headed towards industry-leading sales and earnings growth. But given that this company has trounced analyst expectations for the past several quarters running, the sky is the limit for this up-and-comer.

Bulletproof Pick #5

My next recommendation is one that you'll definitely want to consider "ringing up." With over 2,600 supermarkets across the U.S., this is  one of the nation's largest grocery chains . On top of this, this $97 billion company's empire covers nearly 1,200 gas stations, 800 convenience stores, over 300 jewelry stores (yes, jewelry!) and 37 food processing facilities.

With the dollar as strong as it is, I've been screening for strong domestic companies, which have an inherent edge over multinational companies. And I've found just the right fit in our No. 5 pick, which is also benefitting from lower food costs and higher grocery spending.

But the big catalyst for this company is a multibillion dollar merger. Our grocery retailer is about to combine with one of its biggest competitors in a $2.5 billion cash deal. Analysts expect the deal to add $0.06 to $0.09 a share to this company's earnings in the first full year following the merger.

So I'm telling my  Blue Chip Growth readers to add this stock immediately because it won't be long before it takes off.

Bulletproof Pick #6

Chances are that you're familiar with  Johnson and Johnson  (JNJ), which was founded in 1886 as the Johnson brothers sought to spread the practice of sterile surgery in the U.S. That mission continues today, only now, the company maintains this standard worldwide. J&J has grown into a $16.5 billion company, with hundreds of products in more than 170 countries. J&J consumer products can be found in households everywhere, from Band-Aids to Listerine to Tylenol to baby shampoo. You probably have several on your shelves.

But what you may not realize is just how big the Johnson and Johnson name is. This company dominates the competition even outside of consumer products.

· Details Here

No. 1 in medical devices and diagnostics.

·         No. 5 in biologics.

·         No. 6 in consumer health.

·         No. 8 in pharmaceuticals.

And the company's motto "for all you love" extends to investors as well. As J&J has expanded its global reach, its commitment to its shareholders has remained the same. Johnson & Johnson has increased its dividend for each of the past 51 years! With upwards of a 3% annual dividend yield and strong earnings potential, I have no reservations recommending this old company for new money.

Bulletproof Pick #7

Next up is  my top automotive recommendation , which just so happens to be a leading supplier to the auto industry. From vehicle engineering and assembly to production of exterior trim and building interior door panels, this company has it covered. Fiat–including Chrysler and Dodge–Ford and General Motors are all long-time clients of this up-and-comer.

Now is a great time to buy because this auto parts maker is still flying under the radar of many investors. But I don't expect this stock to remain a secret for long. First, this company is cash rich and using its cash hoard to reward shareholders. It boasts a strong dividend track record–in the past five years it has hiked up its quarterly payment by 78%. The company is also in the middle of a 12 million share repurchase program, which ends in November.

And then there's profit potential. This company is benefitting from all the outsourcing and just-in-time manufacturing demands on the auto industry. And while it is based in Canada, it's a global company that is largely immune to currency valuations that would otherwise hurt its competitiveness. That's because it has the ability to transplant its manufacturing operators to the most competitive countries.

For now, the stock remains a steal, but I look for it to blast away analyst estimates in the coming months.

Bulletproof Pick #8

With 10,400 locations in 150 countries,  Hertz Global Holdings Inc.  (HTZ) has a global reach that extends from airports to construction yards…

Details Here

Because not only do they lease cars by the hour, day, week, or month-their 300+ branches supply earth-moving equipment, construction trucks…even generators and pumps.

They are the #1 choice for consumers, construction, petrochemicals, manufacturing-and let's not forget the entertainment industry. So you'll find them in all North American countries, as well as scattered across Europe and Asia.

One reason Hertz has popped onto my radar is that it is in the middle of a major acquisition. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently granted Hertz final approval to acquire Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (DTG) for $2.3 billion. As part of this deal, Hertz sold off minor assets like its former Advantage car rental business as well as select airport operations. But it should be well worth the effort. The combined company should see at least $160 million in annual cost synergies thanks to increased productivity and efficiency.

Bulletproof Pick #9

My No. 9 recommendation is the world leader in serving science . Scientific institutions–including universities, biotechs, hospitals and government agencies–all go to this leader when they need specialized equipment.

What makes this company special is that it also stands to profit no matter what happens with the general regulatory climate. It makes what I like to call "mandatory devices"–tools that are essential to the day-to-day operations at laboratories, clinics and hospitals. These include analytical instruments, basic chemicals and laboratory glassware. So regardless of how the healthcare industry is changed by ObamaCare, this company's products will still be in demand.

But I'm really recommending this stock now because it is also set to become the second largest player in the genetic testing market. No stranger to big buyouts–the company was formed through a $13 billion merger of two big rivals–this company is buying out a big genetics player for nearly $14 billion. This deal is expected to add $0.90 to $1.00 to its per-share profit in 2014.

Bulletproof Pick #10

The Clorox Co.  (CLX) has dominated the cleaning products market for a century! Clorox is one of those brands that have become so popular that the name is now interchangeable with the generic term "bleach." And, there's good reason for that-it is estimated that 8 in 10 U.S. households rely on Clorox for their laundry and cleaning needs!

Details Here

In addition to bleach, the company's cleaning product portfolio includes Glad, Pine-Sol, Liquid-Plumr, Tilex and Fresh Step and Scoop Away cat litters. But over the years The Clorox Co. has diversified into lifestyle products like Hidden Valley salad dressing, KC Masterpiece barbeque sauce and the Brita water filtration system. The company sells products in over 100 countries across five continents, with the bulk of sales going through mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs and grocery stores. With such a diverse portfolio of household products, Clorox is the leading Housewares & Accessories company in terms of size, return on equity and its strong dividend yield (3%).

CLX is also at the crux of a powerful consumer trend. Whether it's the norovirus or the latest flu virus, it seems like we have a new germ scare every few months. And there is no doubt that the company is benefitting from the germ phobia that has gripped much of the world. Scientists have even talked recently about concerns over superbugs that could prove resistant to antibiotics. More people than ever are using Clorox's antiseptic wipes and cleaning products, so this company's prospects remain strong.

Bulletproof Pick #11

I have a lot of pharmaceutical plays on the  Blue Chip Growth Buy List for one simple reason: Pills are cheaper than procedures. Now that ObamaCare is the law of the land, everyone is required to sign up for healthcare or risk being penalized.  This is creating a very healthy environment for pharmaceutical companies like my final Fed-proof stock .

Right now, all eyes are on this company's ophthalmology division because it's about to get a lot bigger. That's because my No. 11 pick recently bought out one of the world's top contact lens businesses for $8.7 billion. Word on the Street is that this acquisition will add to earnings immediately and add $800 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2014.

And the timing couldn't be better. The global contacts business is booming due to the aging population, growing demand in emerging markets, and growing rates of diabetes, which can damage the eyes. All these signs point to a good year for the company's bottom line, so I'm having my  Blue Chip Growth readers take full advantage of this.

25 Stocks To Sell Now

I've been crunching the numbers and I was shocked to find some of the biggest names on Wall Street–from tech stocks to commodities companies to financials–are on the verge on imploding. In fact, I've isolated no fewer than 25 big names that were flagged by my stock screening system. And because you were among the first to sign up for this special report, you are the first to know about these companies.

If you own any of these companies now is the time to unload them before they get really hammered. Especially with earnings announcement season right around the corner, holding even one of these companies could sabotage your profits for 2013 and beyond. So without further ado, here is my complete list of 25 blue chips to unload right away.

1.      Alcoa Inc.

2.      Apple Inc.

3.      AT&T Inc.

4.      Baker Hughes Inc.

5.      Barrick Gold Corp.

6.      Canon Inc. ADS

7.      Caterpillar Inc.

8.      Coach Inc.

9.      Chevron Corporation

10.  Devon Energy Corp.

Ecopetrol S.A. ADR

12.  E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company

13.  Exelon Corp.

14.  Exxon Mobil Corp.

15.  FirstEnergy Corp.

16.  General Electric Co.

17.  Goldcorp Inc.

18.  Intel Corporation

19.  International Business Machines Corp.

20.  J.C. Penney Co.

21.  Loews Corp.

22.  Microsoft Corporation

23.  Vale S.A. ADS

24.  Vornado Realty Trust

25.  Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Take Your Profits to the
Next Level In 2013

The stocks we've just discussed are a great start. Own even a few shares of the winners and steer clear of the losers I've identified and you will immediately increase your profits, safety and income. But if you're like the tens of thousands of investors I've talked to in my career, you want more.

You want ongoing guidance that will consistently bring you the next big winners. You want updates when those stocks are on the move. And you want a balanced investing approach that limits risk.

Well, that describes  Blue Chip Growth to a "T."

I'm proud that for the past 14 years I've been able to alert my readers to the continuing changes in the market-place and then guide them to the most profitable stocks. By using this simple yet visionary approach, I've been able to not only help them bank $3-to-$1 profits but also lead them to many outstanding profits along the way.

All by simply riding the trends, buying the most profitable stocks, and holding on for the ride.

Thank you for taking the time to read this report. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed preparing it for you. And I hope that you will carefully consider joining me at  Blue Chip Growth. Whatever you decide, I wish you the best of luck with your investing.

Sincerely,

Louis Navellier

¿Que os parece? , a mi dejo con las ideas bastante claras, por eso y por si acaso abrí el fondo Bestinver Renta, el 5 de Diciembre, para un cambio rápido, si hiciese falta, aunque de momento no se vea nada en el horizonte..

Me maravilla que algunos sean capaces de pronosticar hecatombes pero nunca las reales como la de la crisis subprime por solo citar la más relevante de las contemporáneas. Si todos los años dices lo mismo, sea bullish o bearish, acabarás acertando inexorablemente. En fin que hay muchos vendedores de crecepelos por ahí y que cada cual debe prepararse para cuanto pueda acontecer en base a sus conocimientos y a la información de la que disponga. Hombre prevenido vale por dos.

Estoy totalmente de acuerdo contigo.

vaya cartitas para 2014

@esteban, una duda sobre lo que comentas... si no tuvieras el Renta abierto, ¿no puedes hacer el traspaso rapidamente?No se puede abrir en ese momento?

Si, pero en lugar de hacerlo por Internet y antes de las 14,00, con lo cual toma valor de cierre del dia y se aplica al dia siguiente, te pueden tardar entre ir a abrir fondo, papeleos y transferncias de fondos dos ó tres dias. total me da más intereses que en el depósito.

Gracias, no conocía esa diferencia

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