RIESGO DE MERCADO IMPORTANTE.
El gobierno holandés acaba de nacionalizar SNS y fuerza a asumir pérdidas en los tramos Equity, T1 y T2. El ministro de finanzas avisa que podría aplicar quitas parciales futuras en deuda senior para futuras emisiones.
Manage's view: “This morning’s Nationalisation of SNS by the Dutch Government includes the effective cancellation of the bank’s Tier 1 and subordinated debt. (Two insurance sub deals are still intact.) .SNS has been a problem for a long time, and the capital wipe-out was always a possibility. But the relatively high prices we saw in the bank’s capital paper as late as yesterday suggested it was a small probability. There will be “nil recovery” on equity, T1 and T2, said the Ministry of Finance. It also warns it wants to apply haircuts to senior “in future instances.” The bail-in of SNS should leave capital holders of some other struggling European banks wondering. This is like a dog you thot you’d shot coming back to bite you again”. It’s no wonder we’ve seen selling of some of the more difficult Ben elux, German, Austrian, Italian and Spanish banks. Expect them all to potentially weaken..” The State has taken over SNS REAAL and SNS Bank AND its subordinated liabilities. Holders of these securities are no longer owners and now will have to wait and see if they are offered any compensation. Senior debt is not included and neither are the subordinated bonds of SRLEV, the life insurer. Though there is still a lot of confusion out there about the next steps by the Government.
¿POR QUÉ ES ESPECIALMENTE TRANSCENDENTE ESTE TEMA?
Abre un melón importante y es que los gobiernos puedan forzar quitas en tramos subordinados. SNS supuestamente tenía una mejor posición en términos de T1 Capital Ratio que muchas entidades financieras de países periféricos.
Manage's view: The risk of European sovereigns forcing losses onto senior bank bond holders is rising. The key is that they were in a better position than most peripheral banks....their T1 capital ratio at 09/2012 was 8.8% , highlighting how dangerous CoCo structures are!! The risk of European sovereigns forcing losses onto senior bank bond holders is rising.
CoCos (and other sub debt) which is becoming popular due to the coupon are VERY high risk. We have protection. We think the story is that the banks remain vulnerable due to real estate, a story which will last a long time.
¿Qué son los CoCo Bonds?
Contingent Convertible Bonds
Explicación técnica: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contingentconvertible.asp