Sergio Peña

Sergiop (3714th)

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Sergio Peña  

Sergiop (3714th) 

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16:00 on January 01 2011

Outrageous Predictions 2011 by Saxo Bank

– Outrageous Predictions 2011 –


As we move into the second half of 2011, politicians and pundits increasingly succeed in putting the Fed in the hot seat for having been the critical enabler of the US housing debacle and resulting bank bailout and public debt catastrophe. Meanwhile, the too-big-to-fail banks are back in deep trouble again as their troubled mortgage portfolios once again threaten their solvency. The Fed’s Bernanke rallies the FOMC to indicate a strong new expansion of monetary policy to once again bail out the troubled banks and/or local governments. Emboldened by the political and popular winds blowing, however, a Ron Paul led challenge of the Fed’s authority sees the Congress blocking the Fed’s authority to expand its balance sheet, and sets up an eventual challenge of the Fed’s dual employment/inflation mandate.


What do you do when you want domination of the electronic and mobile device consumer market and have no significant presence in social networking? Oh, and a war chest of a mere USD 51 billion? You buy Facebook, the mother lode of (yet to be monetised) social networks. Facebook is worth USD 43 billion, according to In interviews, Apple CEO Steve Jobs has explained that Apple was in talks with Facebook about partnership opportunities, but that the talks ultimately produced nothing. Facebook was after "onerous terms that we could not agree to", according to Jobs. At the Web 2.0 Summit Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg called for Apple to ease its approach to connecting Ping with Facebook, and said that Apple had to "get on the bus". Steve Jobs might get on the bus indeed and buy Facebook outright. It makes perfect sense; Facebook doesn’t compete against Apple and it ‘faces up’ to Google, which Jobs loves since Google has become his new number one enemy. It’s a deal made in heaven… The gigantic 500+ million Facebook user base could be integrated across Apple’s consumer products and services - every Facebook user automatically has an iTunes Store account and FaceTime chat is integrated into Facebook chat. That’s a lot of iOS devices.


The economic growth trajectory in most areas of the world appears healthy for a time in 2011 – at least outside of Europe and Japan. But then trouble occurs in China, where its new 12th five-year plan aimed at increasing consumption fails to function as hoped. With the Chinese industrial base growing more slowly or not at all as a result of the policy shift, the satellite countries dependent on Chinese demand see their economies facing a rough adjustment. This puts global risk appetite in a tail spin, and with the Japanese economy struggling and the Eurozone in disarray, the US dollar suddenly doesn’t look as bad as it did previously. This is especially the case since the market was massively short of the currency at the beginning of the year. The unwinding of these positions pushes the USD index 25% higher to over 100 late in the third quarter of 2011.

– Outrageous Predictions 2011 –


The dollar devaluation policy, with its roots in the ‘currency wars’ of 2010, force emerging markets to use more of their spare dollars on Treasuries. Also, the US edges over the brink toward a ‘Japanisation’ of its economy with core inflation dropping. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing did not have any positive effects, apart from easing the balance sheet woes of American banks. Main Street did not receive much except some benefits from slightly higher stock prices, and with a failure to clear out the system, borrowing returns only slowly and recovery does not gain traction. And then there’s the Eurozone, where the ECB, EU and IMF fail to cure the ills of the peripheral PIIGS, pushing the flock of flustered investors to the safe haven of Uncle Sam. The feel-good factor may have been on the rise in the US in the latter part of 2010, but it vanishes in 2011 and the 30-year Treasury yield drops to 3%.


The UK returns to the values of the old days; they work harder, they save more, and soon enough a surprisingly strong expansion in 2011 is underway as the austerity-stricken country defies the naysayers. The markets have it in for the UK, giving the wide expectation that the economy slows as Prime Minister Cameron’s cuts work their way through the system. However, the large, narrow cuts will not hinder consumer sentiment and as real savings boost production the economy bounces back in the second half of 2011 to end the year as a growth frontrunner in Europe.

Australia, on the other hand, is struggling with a weakening economy as China steps harder on the brakes to stop inflation from getting out of control. Add to this an Australian property market, which is at best in need of restraint and at worst looks like a bubble ready to burst, and we will see a decline of 25% in AUDGBP.


Crude oil, now driven by fundamental investor macro expectations, gets carried away, surging to over USD 100 a barrel in early 2011 on the wave of euphoria that the US economy has broken free of the shackles. Unlike 2008, there’s no follow through to drive the spike higher and investors are left holding oil positions they cannot sustain. Crude succumbs to a violent one-third correction lower later in the year.


Natural gas enters 2011 with a supply surplus as the global downturn has resulted in supply exceeding demand for two years – resulting in two years’ of double digit losses. But heading into 2011 the fundamentals for Henry Hub improve dramatically. Increased industrial demand on a US recovery, historical cheapness relative to crude and coal, forward curve flattening and action on proposals to export more US natural gas reserves all combine to make passive investments in gas more profitable. And the icing – an unusually frigid cold snap leads to a rapid depletion of stocks. Henry Hub thus sees a one-in-25 year move up by 50% in 2011.

– Outrageous Predictions 2011 –


The ‘currency wars’ return with a vengeance in 2011, driven by improvement in the US economy rather than a need to help economic recovery. The US trade deficit widens as consumers and governments get their wallets out. As the deficit expands, President Obama’s plan to ‘double exports in five years’ increasingly becomes a pipe dream and incites the ‘man on the street’ to twist the US Congress’s arm to pursue a weaker dollar. Pressure piles on China and as investors flee to metals in search of some stability, gold shoots up to USD 1,800 an ounce.


Dr. Bernanke, using his mandate of ‘make sure the stock market keeps going up’, continues to pump liquidity into the system in 2011. Even ‘mom-and-pop’ investors realise the only strategy worth following is to buy the dips. But the tactic actually works for the Fed, even though it’s a house of cards, and the US consumers start to spend as their stock portfolios improve and they forgive their money managers. Corporate America doesn’t buy the euphoria that a healthy share price is a good indicator of health, though, and continues the deleveraging process – margin improvements, a wary approach to spending and managing the balance sheet, refinancing debt at next to zero interest rates, and so on. Next thing you know, it’s a proper recovery and the US benchmark index sees the 2007 peak in the rear-view mirror on its way to 1,600.


It’s a perfect storm for Russia’s RTS index in 2011. The next global economic bubble starts to inflate early in the year, sending crude oil above USD 100 a barrel again. The average US investor won’t do anything with his money other than buy the dips on the US stock market, and fans of the Russian stock market realise value in their index at a 1-year forward P/E of 8.6 and price to book ratio of 1.26. The RTS nearly doubles to 2,500 in 2011. The options market says it has a one-in-twelve chance of happening – but the RTS was last up there in mid-2008.

– Outrageous Predictions 2011 –



These pages contain information about the services and products of Saxo Bank A/S (hereinafter referred to as "Saxo Bank"). The material is provided for informational purposes only without regard to any particular user’s investment objectives, financial situation, or means. Hence, no information contained herein is to be construed as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product, or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation, or trading strategy would be illegal. Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information or analysis supplied. Past performance is no indication or guarantee of future performance. Saxo Bank shall not be liable to any customer or third person for the accuracy of the information or any market quotations supplied through this service to a customer, nor for any delays, inaccuracies, errors, interruptions or omissions in the furnishing thereof, for any direct or consequential damages arising from or occasioned by said delays, inaccuracies, errors, interruptions or omissions, or for any discontinuance of the service. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility or liability for the contents of any other site, whether linked to this site or not, or any consequences from your acting upon the contents of another site.


Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any analysis, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo

Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.


Investment recommendations are issued from the Strategy & Research department of Saxo Bank A/S. The recommendations may be published or distributed either by Saxo Bank A/S or its subsidiaries. The opinions, predictions, assumptions and estimates are valid from the date of the publication and are subject to changes, without this being communicated in advance.


Saxo Bank A/S is regulated by Finanstilsynet, the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank A/S may have financial holdings in the securities described. These financial holdings do not arise from investment opportunities but are strictly related to underlying positions or related financial instruments. None of the issuers of the securities described have a financial holding in Saxo Bank A/S, unless specifically mentioned in the investment recommendation. Saxo Bank A/S may have financial relations with issuers of the securities described. Saxo Bank A/S does not provide financial services to issuers of the securities described. Neither did Saxo Bank A/S provide paid investment analysis. Issuers of the securities described may have accounts with Saxo Bank A/S in order to execute transactions.
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Outrageous Predictions 2011 by Saxo Bank

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