Os adjuntamos, una nota publicada por Rory Bateman
responsable de renta variable Europea y Reino Unido de
Schroders; donde analiza la reciente corrección de los mercados.
Con un retroceso de casi el 15%, en la renta variable
europea desde mediados del mes de Septiembre, desde Schroders
vemos estas corecciones como una oportunidad de compra.
Esperamos os resulte interesante.
Recent economic data from the eurozone has undoubtedly
disappointed versus expectations and the chances of a recession
have increased. However, downward revisions to economic activity
have not been sufficiently large to justify the scale of the
selloff. This suggests to us that the plethora of other issues out
there in the market place are having a disproportionate impact,
which from our perspective offers an interesting entry point for
those investors waiting for an opportunity.
If we look at the economic fundamentals in Europe, the main
concern that low levels of inflation may turn into deflation is
not new and in our view there is little evidence to suggest that
the chances of deflation have increased. Whilst consensus GDP
forecasts have been reduced moderately, leading indicators remain
positive and inflation expectations have barely moved. European
Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi has announced a number of
measures to try to ease credit conditions in the eurozone but
these have yet to be fully implemented, at least in part due to
the ‘asset quality review’ (AQR) and stress tests being carried
out on the banks. The results of the AQR will be known very soon
which should give the banks more confidence to lend and to get on
with their day-to-day activities rather than worrying about their
Furthermore, we believe that if the deflationary forces
become too significant there is a high probability of full scale
quantitative easing (QE) in Europe. The significance of QE for
European equities should be seen in the context of the US
experience. The S&P500 saw strong upwards momentum during QE1,
QE2 and QE3. Immediately after QE1 and QE2 the S&P saw a
correction as liquidity was withdrawn from the system. This is
precisely what we are seeing today with the suspension of QE3
earlier this month.
Of course, there are a number of other factors currently
having a negative impact on sentiment. It’s impossible to assess
the ultimate impact of the Ebola virus, but history tells us that
the markets are usually very quick to react. Governments
inevitably respond to the human tragedy and this response is
intensified when the threat of global destabilisation enters the
arena. It’s inappropriate to compare the severity of current
versus historic epidemics or pandemics, but what we do know is
that recent evidence suggests containment can be achieved when
there is a unified global response.
Another cause for concern has been the 25% decline in the
oil price. There are both demand and supply dynamics at play here.
On the demand side, a concurrent slowdown in Europe and China is
inevitably reducing demand for barrels. On the supply side, the
structural shift in the US towards self-sufficiency is bound to
have an impact on an industry that has been dominated by a cartel.
OPEC has decided to try to squeeze the US shale producers to
ensure a long-term continuation of the cartel. From an equity
market perspective, input costs for numerous industries have just
improved dramatically. Take the travel industry, for example,
where in a normal environment profitability would be improved
significantly by lower oil prices but fears of collapsing travel
demand given Ebola have steered investors away from this area of
The pharmaceuticals sector in recent months has been buoyed
by the potential M&A benefits of so-called US ‘tax-inversion’.
The probable withdrawal of the AbbVie bid for Shire shows how
reticent the US authorities are to allow US companies to benefit
from deals structured around tax savings. The repercussions of
the US stance on this issue is temporary as some share prices
We are not suggesting there are no risks on the horizon,
merely that a number of the negative influences driving sentiment
during the current selloff are temporary in nature which for
long-term investors can create opportunities.
We would like to finish by delivering a message to investors
and authorities alike. Your view and interpretation of this
message may well determine whether or not allocating capital to
Europe makes sense for you as an investor. The message is that
it’s time for Germany to step up. Mario Draghi is in the process
of utilising all the power he has as ECB President with monetary
stimuli, namely TLTRO, ABS purchases and probably full scale QE at
some point. However, on a number of occasions he has also
highlighted the fact that monetary policy cannot create a
sustained recovery in Europe without governments, where possible,
taking appropriate fiscal measures. The German insistence on
balancing the budget is highly commendable but not at the expense
of ignoring the economic cycle and ignoring the fact that they are
the key member of the eurozone itself.
Our belief is that the recovery in Europe will be slow and
bumpy. Germany needs to act to ensure that recovery is sustainable
and to take responsibility for the survival of the eurozone.