Me ha parecido interesante este artículo de Investing.com
sobre los riesgos implícitos de las continuadas bajadas en el
precio del petróleo, que resumo:
Más de 1 Trillón de dólares perdidos
de capitalización bursátil en empresas relacionadas
con el petróleo.
Casi 2 trillones en bonos de deuda
vendidos por las compañías energéticas y mineras se
enfrentan a rebajas de rating
Salidas netas de capital de los países emergentes
Desde Junio 2014 el barril de crudo Brent ha caído un
65% desde 115 a 40. Dieciocho meses de caídas que lo han
llevado hasta 37 y algunos auguran ver precios de 20 este
Las reservas de divisas de Arabia Saudí, el mayor
productor mundial, están cayendo a un ritmo de más de 120 millones/año
La combinación de bajos precios del petróleo por un
largo tiempo y mayores tasas de interés podría ser
tóxico para el crédito corporativo y para los países emergentes.
Éste es enlace al artículo original.
Y éste es un copia-pega del mismo:
Analysis - Biggest 2016 risk may be the one just behind us: oil
By Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) - The biggest financial risk in 2016 may be the one
that's been on stage all year.
In Britain's popular Christmas pantomime shows, audiences scream out
"He's behind you!" as a warning to the hero whenever the
That refrain is almost audible as investment strategists scan 2016
for risk events, as the well-known baddie of plummeting oil prices
re-emerges from behind the curtain.
It's so familiar now, it's hard to register a further oil price drop
as a 'new' risk, however.
Financial markets have been living with the consequences of the
energy deflation since mid-2014, and the fallout has been pervasive.
The idea of another shock of that magnitude is unnerving to say the least.
More than a trillion dollars of market capitalization has been wiped
off oil stocks worldwide.
Almost $2 trillion of debt sold by energy and mining companies since
2010, many of them high-yield or 'junk' bonds from small shale gas
firms, are facing a wave of credit rating downgrades and defaults are rising.
About 2 trillion euros of European government debt is now yielding
less than zero percent after oil-seeded deflation scares forced the
inflation-targeting European Central Bank to begin a bond-buying spree
earlier this year.
The impact on inflation forecasts of yet another sustained drop in
oil prices has been alarming as much for central banks about to
tighten, such as the Federal Reserve, as for those still easing, like
What's more, the scale of the hit to commodity exporting nations from
Russia to Brazil and SouthEast Asia has stood out. Their currencies
have imploded, and 2015 is set to mark the first year of a net private
capital outflow from emerging markets since 1988.
Given the scale of the oil price drop, it's not hard to see why
markets have rewritten so many scripts.
Since June 2014, Brent crude
has plunged 65 percent from $115 per barrel to $40. Much of that
implosion happened in the last six months of last year, but any hopes
of a rebound this year evaporated amid a toxic mix of a swelling
supply glut and steep demand slowdowns in China and emerging economies.
The prospect of living with oil prices that just stay around here and
don't bounce back to at least $60 was already going to be a major
challenge for many exposed companies and economies - not least as they
brace for next week's U.S. interest rate rise.
But for all the myriad market risks outlined by banks for the year
ahead - ranging from Middle East conflict and geopolitics, central
bank policy 'mistakes', market liquidity shocks or even Britain voting
to exit the European Union - very few list yet another halving of oil prices.
And yet, after last week's OPEC meeting broke up in disarray with no
agreement on supply cuts or even a reference to production caps, crude
prices have given up the ghost again.
Brent has plumbed new lows below $40 per barrel this week, while U.S. crude
slumped under $37. Even the rolling annual average price, at less than
$55, has halved in just 18 months and continues to slide.
'NEW OIL ORDER'
Long-term oil price bears Goldman Sachs (N: GS)
reckon that any thought of a rebound or even stabilization in 2016 are
way off the mark and that US crude could shed almost 50 percent from
here to $20.
"There is a risk that a milder winter, slower EM growth, and the
(potential) lifting of international Iranian sanctions will cause
inventories to build further," the bank told clients this week.
"These factors imply that the near-term risks to the forecast
remain skewed to the downside. If oil prices breach logistical and
storage capacity, they think oil prices could collapse to production
costs as low as $20/bbl."
If that proved correct, it would pull out another thread in this
year's already unravelling market.
And the market stress gets amplified in many different ways - not
least in the drain on world markets from lower central bank reserves
and petrodollar savings in big energy exporting nations. The rundown
of these savings combined with rising Federal Reserve interest rates
could well put upward pressure on long-term interest rates over time
as the reversal of the commodities supercycle twins with its bond
New investments in global equities, bonds and real estate from
oil-fueled sovereign wealth funds are already drying up amid reports
of billions of dollars of withdrawals by state institutions from
private asset managers.
The foreign assets of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency alone are
shrinking at an annual rate of more than $120 billion.
"If the global economic expansion continues, as we expect, then
rising investment demand will eventually expose the market
consequences of ebbing petrodollar saving flows," Goldman Sachs
The combination of lower-for-longer oil and higher real rates could
be toxic for corporate credit and emerging markets.
Forecasting a rise in oil and mining sector bond defaults next year
and "staggering adverse conditions" for those firms, Moody's
credit rating firm said the only things delaying this in 2015 were
temporary cushions in hedging programs, fixed-price contracts and the
rundown of existing cash balances.
But that could all change next year if oil prices don't recover or
even continue to fall.
"Diminishing liquidity and restricted access to capital markets
are now pushing more firms closer to default," Moody's Managing
Director Daniel Gates said last week.
And for those itching to return to battered emerging market equity
and debt, the message is clear:
"Investors should continue to keep their guard up in 2016,"
Morgan Stanley (N: MS) told
clients this week.