¿Será ésta una nueva predicción equivocada?
al artículo en el que se comenta que que 2015
ha sido un año prácticamente sin beneficio en USA y que 2016
probablemente será una repetición de comportamiento errático.
Nadie tiene la bola de cristal para conocer el futuro, aunque lo que
comenta el artículo tiene toda su lógica, bien podría suceder lo
contrario, que el aumento de tipos de la FED, haga que los bancos se
animen a ofrecer más créditos (al aumentar su rentabilidad por la
subida de tipos) y ésto tire del consumo y de las ventas de las
empresas, ergo eventualmente aumentos, ni que sea limitados, en sus cotizaciones.
En mi opinión, la asignación de activos y la selección de
valores, como siempre, volverá a ser clave el próximo año.
Para los más cómodos copio y pego debajo el artículo con sus gráficos:
"Sell In December And Go Away" - Why Goldman Sees The
Market Going Nowhere In 2016
By: Zero Hedge
Tuesday, November 24, 2015 at 01:56 pm EST
When it comes to 2016, Goldman says that it is " deja vu
all over again", and that the S&P 500 index will
tread water for a second consecutive year. Specifically Goldman says
that its "year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price
gain from the current index level (2089), which itself is just 1%
above the year-end 2014 level of 2059."
Hardly the double-digit annual growth everyone has gotten used to
over the past 7 years, that was so easy anyone could do it.
Here are the reasons why Goldman expects all the main themes from
2015 to be repeated in the coming year, and why the one can just
sell on December 31, 2015 and go away for the next year:
In many ways our 2016 forecast is “déjà vu all over
again.” The US stock market has mostly traded sideways
during 2015 with the index hovering in a narrow band except for
a brief late summer correction. Return dispersion across the
market and within sectors has been low. Market breadth is
currently at one of the lowest levels in 30 years. About 75% of
large-cap core mutual funds is lagging the benchmark. The equity
long/short hedge fund index has returned -2% YTD, trailing
S&P 500 for the seventh consecutive year. About
75% of large-cap core mutual funds is lagging the
benchmark. The equity long/shorthedge fund index has
returned -2% YTD, trailing S&P 500 for the seventh
In terms of fundamentals, Goldman Sachs US
Economics Research expects tepid GDP growth of 2.2% in both 2016
and 2017. We forecast S&P 500 earnings will rise by 10% to
$120 per share in 2016 and by 7% to $129 in 2017 (see Exhibit 1).
However, the headline EPS growth rate is misleading because it
reflects a partial recovery in Energy sector profits after they
collapsed by 80% this year in concert with the plunge in crude
oil. EPS growth outside Energy will equal 8%. We expect flat net
profit margins of 9.1% in 2016 and 2017.
In terms of valuation, both the aggregate
S&P 500 index and the median stock trade at the high end of a
range of fair value based on most metrics. Our year-end 2016
index target of 2100 implies a P/E multiple compression of 8% to
16.2x our top-down 2017 EPS estimate, or 12% based on the
bottom-up consensus earnings forecast. S&P 500 P/E multiple
fell by an average of 10% in the 12 months following the start of
prior tightening cycles.
The typical S&P 500 constituent has a forward P/E of
17.2x, an EV/sales of 2.4x, an EV/EBITDA of 10.8x, and a P/B
of 3.0x. Only 6% of the time during the last 40 years has
the median stock traded at a P/E multiple higher than it
In terms of money flow, corporate repurchases
will remain the primary source of demand for US equities. Firms
that have returned cash to shareholders via buybacks and
dividends have outperformed for 25 years. The pattern was
repeated this year and the trend will likely continue in 2016
given our muted equity return forecast (see S&P 500 cash
spending trends: Investing vs. returning capital, November 6, 2015).
In terms of risks, uncertainties include (1)
interest rate path different from our baseline assumption of
year-end 2016 fed funds at 1.4% and 10-year bond yields of 3.0%;
(2) global economic growth below our 3.5% forecast; (3) US
presidential election; and (4) geopolitics.
And in charts: