Hace poco me encontre con el Articulo que da titulo a este mio y que
pueden encontrar aqui;
Tengo un buen pico invertido en el valor desde hace tiempo (
aproximación Value a una Empresa que creo que tiene bastantes ventajas
competitivas), pero despues de varios años en donde el valor a ido
perdiendo fuerza he estado tentado en muchas ocasiones de vender.
Finalmente, no lo he hecho, por que sigo creyendo que la compañia
tiene capacidad para crecer muchisimo. Esta muy bien gestionada, tiene
cantidades ingentes de Cash, han cometido errores que han reconocido
publicamente y de los que han aprendido mucho, y creo que ha llegado
su momento.. tal y como dice el titulo.
Me consta que varios Unienceros lo tienen en Cartera, y me suena que
hasta algun Fondo ( Koala ??), por eso me gustaria saber si estais de
acuerdo con el titular ?, o todo lo contrario ( que seguramente será
lo mas interesante de escuchar.)
Feliz Navidad per tuti.
Investors have been more squarely focused on the consumer end of the
tech landscape, bidding ups shares of Apple ( AAPL
-0.45%), Google, ( GOOG
-0.21%), Amazon.com ( AMZN
-0.93%) and others. But on the business end of high-tech, the big
winners haven't been such industry leaders.
Instead, most gains have come from small but growing software and
But this theme may be upended in 2013, as one of the most dominant
companies in the enterprise space regains its mojo. I'm talking about
Cisco Systems ( CSCO
-0.48%), which has had little to show investors during the past
Although the stock chart may give the impression of a company slowly
losing relevance, nothing could be further from the truth. Cisco's
operational performance has been quite solid in recent years,
especially when compared to stumbling giants such as
Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ
-1.82%), Dell ( DELL
-0.59%) and networking competitors like Juniper Networks (
Consider that Cisco has generated a whopping $46 billion in
cumulative free cash flow during the past five years.
But Cisco can be taken to task for being a little too content to
simply squeeze out cash from a largely mature business. Indeed, shares
fell out of bed in the summer of 2011 simply because investors could
no longer see a long-term path to growth.
A number of the company's recent acquisitions had failed to deliver
promised growth, and Cisco's end markets -- most notably in government
and telecom -- weren't looking all that perky.
Yet in recent quarters, management has begun to talk about a sharper
game plan that will likely help solidify Cisco's role in many markets.
The plan involves a number of small steps that are unlikely to lead to
explosive sales growth, but should fuel a steady expansion in profit
margins and a more linear trend of profit growth.
Here are the five small steps that should add up to solid gains for
Cisco shareholders in 2013.
1. Going where the action is
Cisco is best known for producing the software, switches and routers
that run corporate and communications data networks. But thanks to
heavy spending on research and development, as well as certain
acquisitions, Cisco is well-positioned for industry leadership in
mobile computing, cloud computing, video-delivery services, network
security, web conferencing and network storage.
No other vendor in the world can offer clients this comprehensive
suite of offerings, a key consideration when
information-technolo?gy managers worry about the
interoperability of various technology components in their corporate ecosystem.
"The market is moving to buying solutions rather than buying
standalone boxes, playing to Cisco's core strength," noted
analysts at Merrill Lynch.
2. A rising focus on software
The company has set an ambitious target of doubling the revenue it
derives from software in the next five years. This, in turn, should
lead to a rising take rate for its expanding suite of service offerings.
This is a page right out of the IBM ( IBM
-0.61%) playbook. Cisco CEO John Chambers is surely aware of IBM's
100% stock price gain during the past five years, as investors have
come to embrace Big Blue's linear growth.
You can't blame Chambers for a bit of IBM envy. IBM carries similar
margins today, but its enterprise value-to-sales ratio is 40% higher
than Cisco's. That's why emulating IBM is a wise move.
Furthering the IBM analogy, Chambers understands that IBM's focus on
long-term service contracts leads to much smoother revenue and profit
streams. The company aims to boost service revenue from a current 21%
of the sales mix to more than 25% within three years.
3. Cutting costs, boosting margins
Cisco has at times been accused of a bit of "porkiness."
The company has grudgingly embarked on a few major layoffs in its
history, but nobody would call Cisco a lean enterprise.
In recent meetings with analysts, however, Chambers has discussed
plans to trim down and/or reap synergies in coming quarters. This
helps partially explain why he expects operating profits to grow 3 to
4 percentage points faster than sales growth in the next few years.
(The rising mix of software is another factor).
Chambers also understands that profit gains need to be linear if they
are to be applauded by Wall Street (another lesson from Big Blue). The
fact that Cisco's operating profits fell by $2 billion in fiscal 2009,
rose by a similar amount in 2010, fell again in 2011 and rose anew in
2012 is a clear impediment for investors that crave linearity.
4. Tapping emerging markets
Chambers now spends considerable time in Latin America and Asia. He's
directed his sales force to treat these markets as a top priority. The
timing is good, as these markets are now increasingly home to large
domestically grown companies, and not simply the foreign divisions of
U.S. firms. Emerging markets represent about $9 billion in annual
sales (20% of Cisco's sales base), though the company aims to boost
that by 10% annually in the next three to five years. To get there,
Cisco is developing lower-cost solutions for these price-sensitive markets.
5. Free-cash flow = buybacks
Any discussion of Cisco has to touch on the prodigious free-cash flow
and the long run of share buybacks they have fueled. The share count
has already fallen from 6.8 billion in fiscal 2004 to 5.4 billion at
the end of 2011, and, considering management's plan to spend 60% of
future cash flow on buybacks and dividends, this trend should continue.
Action to take
Even with all of these growth-inducing steps, Cisco is only likely to
boost annual sales in the mid-to-upper single digits, while per-share
profit growth is unlikely to exceed 10%. But by delivering these kinds
of gains in a steady linear fashion, investors are likely to reward
this stock with an ever-higher multiple.
When you include Cisco's massive $33 billion net cash pile, this
becomes a low-multiple stock with a fairly low level of embedded
expectations. This means 2013 should represent a fresh perspective for
this one-time high-flyer as growth kicks in.
Risk to consider
To augment growth, Cisco has signaled plans to pursue a fairly hefty
acquisition in coming quarters, and such deals can sometimes spook investors.