BENITO

Madrid. Madrid. ESPAÑA.

Nunca España tuvo tanta influencia economica en el mundo. Fitch acaba de anunciar la bajada del raiting de España, y ha caido NY y el petroleo, el euro, etc


Escrito 28 May 10

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-ends-lower-hit-by-spains-debt-downgrade-2010-05-28

Oil ends lower, hit by Spain's debt downgrade

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil settled lower on Friday after fluctuating earlier, as a downgrade for Spain's debt brought back concerns about a potential European debt crisis weighing on oil demand. Oil for July delivery declined 58 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.97 a barrel. Oil for August delivery retreated 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $75.16 a barrel. Gasoline for July delivery lost a penny, or 0.4%, $2.03 a gallon. Fitch Ratings on Friday downgraded Spain's debt to AA+ from AAA, citing concerns about the country's level of debt relative to its gross domestic product

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-downgrades-spain-from-aaa-2010-05-28

By William L. Watts, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Fitch Ratings on Friday cut Spain's credit rating from AAA to AA+, citing expectations that efforts to reduce public- and private-sector debt levels would significantly slow economic growth over the medium term.

Fitch said Spain's ratings outlook was stable.

"Despite government debt and associated interest costs remaining within the AAA range, Fitch anticipates that the economic adjustment process will be more difficult and prolonged than for other economies with AAA-rated sovereign governments, which is why the agency has downgraded Spain's rating to AA+," said Brian Coulton, head of EMEA sovereign ratings at the agency.

The move, announced after the close of European markets, put added pressure on U.S. stocks. The euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd ( CUR_EURUSD 1.2289, -0.0073, -0.5905%) remained lower versus the U.S. dollar at $1.2302, down around 0.3% on the day.

But economists said the downgrade wasn't a surprise.

Spain moved into the spotlight in the long-running euro-zone sovereign debt crisis this week as worries mounted about the country's banking sector after the Bank of Spain stepped in to rescue CajaSur, a failed regional lender.

The Spanish parliament earlier this week approved a controversial 15 billion euro ($18 billion) package of austerity measures by a single vote. The measures include cuts to pay for civil servants and a pension freeze. Read about Spain's austerity plan.

"All in all, no big news, and Spain losing AAA status is therefore not overly surprising," said Tullia Bucco, economist at UniCredit Bank in Milan. "While recent austerity measures are credible and go in the right direction, growth prospects remain investors' main concern."

Standard & Poor's last month downgraded Spain to AA from AA+. Read about S&P's downgrade.

Fitch said Spain's rigid labor market and the restructuring of regional and local savings banks, or cajas, will hinder the pace of adjustment, particularly in the aftermath of the nation's collapsed property bubble.

The agency said the government's fiscal consolidation plan is "ambitious and supported by specific and detailed measures, some of which have already been implemented." It also noted what it called Spain's track record of responsible public finances and an "unblemished" debt-servicing record.

But the recovery is likely to underperform the government's expectations.

Servicing Spain's foreign debt will be a source of strain, while the costs of restructuring the caja sector could be "substantial," although likely to remain significantly less than the €9 billion set aside under the governments Fund for Restructuring of Banks, Fitch said.

The stable outlook for Spain's sovereign rating reflects expectations the country's credit profile "will remain very strong and consistent with its AA+ rating, even in the event of some slippage relative to official fiscal targets," the agency said.

William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.

Comentarios (5)

MRDV http://miguelramo.com/mef - https://twitter.com/miguelramo

29 May 10
Somos tristemente importantes pero es cierto que lo que ocurre en
España, con mucho más peso que Grecia, se interpreta como el
desencadenante de lo que puede suceder en el resto de la UE, sobre todo
en la eurozona, de ahí el miedo al efecto dominó. Es aberrante ver que
seguimos al son de las agencias crediticias. Fitch nos rebaja el rating
pero ni siquiera se plantea revisar el del Reino Unido ¿Pánico quizás?
Está claro que los privilegios existen al mismo nivel que la falta de
objetividad.
29 May 10
Como bien apunta MRDV creo que los medios de comunicación anglosajones
están tratando de desviar la atención hacia nosotros.Pero más pronto o
más tarde la atención se centrará hacia USA y UK,entonces si que vendrán
los problemas gordos.

Sin embargo,volverán a inundar de billetes el sistema,y vuelta a
empezar.
30 May 10

Independientemente de la confianza que tengamos en las empresas de
rating, que si, no vieron o no quisieron ver la crisis de Lehman, etc.
Por lo que España no se puede comparar con UK y con USA es porque
mientras que de UK y de USA se espera y sobretodo USA ya va dando
indicadores que asi sera, una recuperación del PIB en forma de U, en
España se espera una forma de L, y no solo una reducción de gastos
sino medidas estructurales que pasan los años y aqui seguimos:


- 3 años llevan para una reforma laboral


- La reforma de la ley de cajas que nunca vino y seguimos esperando


- Quien no recuerda ya aquella apuesta por el I+D que iba a cambiar
nuestro modelo productivo ??? que nunca salió


etcc


Es por lo que FITCH dice esto


Fitch said Spain's rigid labor market and the restructuring of
regional and local savings banks, or cajas, will hinder the pace of
adjustment, particularly in the aftermath of the nation's collapsed
property bubble.


The agency said the government's fiscal consolidation plan is
"ambitious and supported by specific and detailed measures, some
of which have already been implemented." It also noted what it
called Spain's track record of responsible public finances and an
"unblemished" debt-servicing record.


But the recovery is likely to underperform the government's expectations.


MRDV http://miguelramo.com/mef - https://twitter.com/miguelramo

30 May 10
@BENITO: nada que objetar a la realidad de las situaciones, solo me
quejo de que Fitch solo analice lo que decide analizar cuando decide
analizarlo. Los datos de UK son para llorar pero para conocerlos hay que
buscar y rebuscar mientras que los de los PIIGS están en todas las
portadas.
1 Jun 10
Miguel en eso te doy la razón totalmente pero es que la prensa economica
inglesa y americana tiene mucha mas importancia que la española (aunque
en eso tambien se van acortando las distancias) pero tambien es cierto
que esos mismos periodicos hablaban hace 7 años del milagro español y
ahora simplemente es que nosotros mismos no damos muy buena impresión
que digamos y encima los que gobiernan, los que se oponen y ya no
digamos los "agentes sociales" dan un ejemplo de bandazos que
precisamente no ayuda mucho