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Soros aumenta su posición bajista sobre el S&P 500


Escrito 18 Feb 14
Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion
February 17, 2014, 7:23 AM
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BloombergGeorge Soros
Soros Fund Management has doubled up a bet that the S&P 500 SPX  is headed for a fall.
 
Within Friday’s 13F filings news was the revelation that the firm, founded by legendary investor George Soros, increased a put position on the S&P 500 ETF   SPY +0.01%  by a whopping 154% in the fourth quarter, compared with the third. (A put or short position basically gives the owner the right to sell a security at a set price for a limited time, and in making such a bet, an investor generally believes the security is going to decline.)
 
The value of that holding, the biggest position in the fund, has risen to $1.3 billion from around $470 million. It now makes up a 11.13% chunk of all reported holdings. It had been cut to 5.14% in the third quarter, from 13.54% in the second quarter, which itself marked another dramatic lift on the bearish call.  The numbers can be found at Whalewisdom.com, which makes them slightly easier to digest than the actual SEC filing.
 
Writing on the Bullion Baron blog, Joseph has been quick to alert readers to the hedge fund’s bets on the S&P 500, offering up a summary of changes to that call from mid-2011 onward. For the four quarters of 2013, that short has followed a pattern of big highs and big lows.
 
 
Bullionbaron.com
Of course, Joseph said, the bearish S&P call could be a hedge and, as it’s six weeks into the next reporting period, it may have already been reduced or increased. But he said it could also be indicative of jitters: In  January, Soros highlighted risks coming out of China and drew a comparison with the lead-up to the crash of 2008.
 
“It’s possible that the SPY puts are just a hedge, weighed against other long positions he holds in specific stocks. However, the views he expressed in this article lead me to believe he thinks another crisis is brewing (led by China on this occasion) and the SPY put position could be an attempt profit from it,” says Joseph.
 
The second- and third-biggest positions in the 13F were a fresh put on the Energy Select Sector SPDR fund    and a big jump in holds of Israeli pharmaceutical maker Teva  TEVA .  Read about more changes in Soros’s quarterly holdings here.
 
Soros and his hedge fund aren’t alone if they’re feeling unease at the bull run for markets. It’s been roughly 28 months since a substantial correction for the S&P 500, which is down 0.5% for the year after having endured a pullback earlier this month, triggered in part by jitters over emerging markets. Strategists have been debating about when and how the correction is going to happen.
 
As for whether investors should ape the 13F followings of others, MarketWatch’s Bill Watts pointed out last week that the 45-day lag in the holdings is particularly tricky when it comes to calls like a huge bearish bet on the S&P 500. And he found that while hedge funds outperform on the upside, they do far worse on the downside.
 
It was Soros himself who famously once said: “I rely a great deal on animal instincts.” And as we all know, George’s made some big, crazy, winning bets in the past.
 
– Barbara Kollmeyer writes for MarketWatch. Follow her @bkollmeyer.
 
Related must-reads from MarketWatch:
 
Hedge fund titans take shine to General Motors; Buffett bets on Liberty Global, 13-F filings show
 
Consensus on ‘scary’ 1929 chart: Enough already, it’s not happening
 
George Soros’s hedge fund regains title of the world’s most successful

Comentarios (7)

hipotrader Inversor a largo plazo

18 Feb 14

Si, de repente, baja mucho el SP500, ¿Soros habrá predicho lo que iba
a hacer el mercado o, por contra, a sido capaz de mover el mercado
hacia su apuesta?


Es decir, ¿los gurús intuyen/saben lo que va a ocurrir o condicionan
con sus manifestaciones lo que va a ocurrir?


arturop https://foro.masdividendos.com/

18 Feb 14

ojo con hacer extrapolaciones sin tener una idea de al menos la
correlación histórica...




vía paststat


18 Feb 14

Perdona Manuel pero sin darme cuenta de tu artículo he sacado otro igual. 


Estoy de acuerdo contigo en que puede ser un indicador de cambio de tendencia.


18 Feb 14

Yo creo que en un periodo de lateralidad como éste en el que aunque
se dice que la tendencia es alcista, no termina más que de
consodilarse los 1750, cualquier posición corta realizada por una
firma como la de este señor, puede terminar por mover a la baja al mercado.


arturop https://foro.masdividendos.com/

18 Feb 14

yo diría que comprar puts no es ponerse corto, sino ponerse "no
largo", pero bueno manías mías :)


18 Feb 14

@arturop, un día de estosdeberías publicar un glosario de términos y
definiciones "propios". Cuenta con mi recomendación y
comentario si te decides...    :)


arturop https://foro.masdividendos.com/

18 Feb 14

jaja, gracias, tantos proyectos y tan poco tiempo...