Edito: Ya se conocen las cifras de 1.661M EUR de Beneficio Neto. 18%
más que el año anterior.
Bank presenta resultados mañana y lo hace con un artículo más que
crítuco con su exposición a derivados. Según esté artículo de
ZH tendría una exposición superior a los 55,6T ( con T americana) de EUR.
recordar, que el banco germano ya estuvo envuelto en una polémica
venta un tanto opaca allá por la primavera de 2009.
¿ Cuantos son 55,5 T de EUR?
Puede ser algo menos que 4 veces el PIB de la zona Euro. O lo que
500.M de personas producen durante 4 años.
per capita 2011
per capita 2012
per capita 2011
EU27 = 100
valer para comprar 585.227 Cristianos Ronaldos.
Apple para nosotros solos 181 Veces.
O 1010 veces el
el equivalente a 60 veces la deuda pública del Reino de España
9266 veces la M30. ( Esto aproximadamente llevaría hacerlo
Y por último son
452 veces el valor del Oro en Bundesbank. O 188 veces el que
dice que tiene la Fed. (*)
Moments ago the market jeered
the announcement of DB's 10% equity dilution, promptly
followed by cheering
its early earnings announcement which was a "beat"
on the topline, despite some weakness in sales and trading and an
increase in bad debt provisions (which at €354MM on total
loans of €399.9 BN net of a tiny €4.863 BN in loan loss
allowance will have to go higher. Much higher). Ironically both
events are complete noise in the grand scheme of things. Because
something far more interesting can be found on page 87 of the
The thing in question is the company's self-reported total gross
notional derivative exposure.
And while the vast majority of readers may be left with the
impression that JPMorgan's mindboggling $69.5 trillion in gross
notional derivative exposure as
of Q4 2012 may be the largest in the world, they would be
surprised to learn that that is not the case. In fact, the bank
with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the
US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may
have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank.
The amount in question? €55,605,039,000,000.
Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange
rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000.... Or roughly $2
trillion more than JPMorgan's.
The good news for Deutsche Bank's accountants and shareholders,
and for Germany's spinmasters, is that through the magic of
netting, this number collapses into €776.7 billion in positive
market value exposure (assets), and €756.4 billion in negative
market value exposure (liabilities), both of which are the single
largest asset and liability line item in the firm's €2 trillion
balance sheet mind you, and subsequently collapses even further
into a "tidy little package" number of just €20.3.
Of course, this works in theory, however in practice the theory
falls apart the second there is discontinuity in the collateral
chain as we have shown repeatedly in thh past, and not only does
the €20.3 billion number promptly cease to represent anything
real, but the netted derivative exposure even promptlier become
the gross number, somewhere north of $70 trillion.
Which, of course, is the primary reason why Germany, theatrically
kicking and screaming for the past four years, has done everything
in its power, even "yielding" to the ECB, to make sure
there is no domino-like collapse of European banks, which would
most certainly precipitate just the kind of collateral chain
breakage and net-to-gross conversion that is what causes Anshu
Jain, and every other bank CEO, to wake up drenched in sweat every night.
Finally, just to keep it all in perspective, below is a chart
showing Germany's GDP compared to Deutsche Bank's total derivative
exposure. If nothing else, it should make clear, once and for all,
just who is truly calling the Mutually Assured Destruction shots
But don't worry, this €56 trillion in exposure, should everything
go really, really bad is backed by the more than equitable €575.2
billion in deposits, or just 100 times less. Of course, a
slighly more aggresive than normal bail-in may be
required in case DB itself has to followin the footsteps of Cyprus...