Financial Data Analyst en Unience

Madrid. Madrid. ESPAÑA.

Exposición a derivados de DB es 2000% del pib Alemán (ZH)

Escrito 30 Apr 13

Edito: Ya se conocen las cifras de 1.661M EUR de Beneficio Neto. 18% más que el año anterior. 

Deutsche Bank presenta resultados mañana y lo hace con un artículo más que crítuco con su exposición a derivados. Según esté artículo de ZH tendría una exposición superior a los 55,6T ( con T americana) de EUR.

Conviene recordar, que el banco germano ya estuvo envuelto en una polémica venta un tanto opaca allá por la primavera de 2009.

¿ Cuantos son 55,5 T de EUR?

Puede ser algo menos que 4 veces el PIB de la zona Euro. O lo que 500.M de personas producen durante 4 años.



Member states GDP 2012
millions of
in millions
per capita 2011
GDP (Nominal)
per capita 2012
per capita 2011
EU27 = 100

  European Union 12,899,149 501 25,100 25,600 100%  
  Germany 2,643,900 81.4 30,300 32,299 121%



Podrían valer para comprar 585.227 Cristianos Ronaldos.


Podríamos comprarnos Apple para nosotros solos 181  Veces.


O 1010  veces el Banco Santander


Es el equivalente a 60 veces la deuda pública del Reino de España


Hacer 9266 veces la M30. ( Esto aproximadamente llevaría hacerlo 55.596 años)


Y por último son 452 veces el valor del Oro en Bundesbank. O 188 veces el que dice que tiene la Fed. (*)



(*)Oh wait!

Artículo Original

Moments ago the market  jeered the announcement of DB's 10% equity dilution, promptly followed by  cheering its early earnings announcement which was a "beat" on the topline, despite some weakness in sales and trading and an increase in bad debt provisions (which at €354MM on  total loans of €399.9 BN net of a tiny €4.863 BN in loan loss allowance will have to go higher. Much higher). Ironically both events are complete noise in the grand scheme of things. Because something far more interesting can be found on page 87 of the company's  2012 financial report.

The thing in question is the company's self-reported total gross notional derivative exposure.

And while the vast majority of readers may be left with the impression that JPMorgan's mindboggling $69.5 trillion in gross notional derivative exposure  as of Q4 2012 may be the largest in the world, they would be surprised to learn that that is not the case. In fact, the bank with the single largest derivative exposure is not located in the US at all, but in the heart of Europe, and its name, as some may have guessed by now, is Deutsche Bank.

The amount in question?  €55,605,039,000,000Which, converted into USD at the current EURUSD exchange rate amounts to $72,842,601,090,000....  Or roughly $2 trillion more than JPMorgan's.



The good news for Deutsche Bank's accountants and shareholders, and for Germany's spinmasters, is that through the magic of netting, this number collapses into €776.7 billion in positive market value exposure (assets), and €756.4 billion in negative market value exposure (liabilities), both of which are the single largest asset and liability line item in the firm's €2 trillion balance sheet mind you, and subsequently collapses even further into a "tidy little package" number of just €20.3. 

Of course, this works in theory, however in practice the theory falls apart the second there is discontinuity in the collateral chain as we have shown repeatedly in thh past, and not only does the €20.3 billion number promptly cease to represent anything real, but the netted derivative exposure even promptlier become the gross number, somewhere north of $70 trillion.

Which, of course, is the primary reason why Germany, theatrically kicking and screaming for the past four years, has done everything in its power, even "yielding" to the ECB, to make sure there is no domino-like collapse of European banks, which would most certainly precipitate just the kind of collateral chain breakage and net-to-gross conversion that is what causes Anshu Jain, and every other bank CEO, to wake up drenched in sweat every night.

Finally, just to keep it all in perspective, below is a chart showing Germany's GDP compared to Deutsche Bank's total derivative exposure. If nothing else, it should make clear, once and for all, just who is truly calling the Mutually Assured Destruction shots in Europe.



But don't worry, this €56 trillion in exposure, should everything go really, really bad is backed by the more than equitable  €575.2 billion in deposits, or just 100 times less. Of course, a slighly more aggresive than normal  bail-in may be required in case DB itself has to followin the footsteps of Cyprus...



Comentarios (1)

apandres Financial Data Analyst en Unience

30 Apr 13


el economista.

Deutsche Bank obtuvo en el primer trimestre de 2013 un beneficio
neto de 1.661 millones de euros, un 18% más que los 1.407 millones
de euros que ganó en el mismo periodo de 2012, informó la entidad,
que ha anunciado además que llevará a cabo una ampliación de capital
por importe de 2.800 millones de euros.

El mayor banco alemán por activos alcanzó en los tres primeros
meses del año una cifra de negocios de 9.391 millones de euros, lo
que supone un 2,1% más que los 9.194 millones de euros de hace un
, mientras que provisionó 354 millones por pérdidas de
crédito, un 12,7% más que los 314 millones de euros del primer
trimestre de 2012.

Por otro lado, la entidad informa de que el ratio de capital
básico Core Tier 1 según los requisitos de Basilea III se situó en
el 8,8% al finalizar el primer trimestre, tres décimas por encima de
su objetivo del 8,5%.