Manuel Cubiles  

ManuelCu (53º) 

Este artículo ha sido marcado como molesto Deshacer
ManuelCu
10:33 el 05 junio 2015

Analizo Gestores y Fondos de Inversión.

Danske Bank: O.Kelton stock picking

Hola, 

Os remito el caso de Danske Bank, uno de los valores de la cartera de Oliver Kelton. Tengo el performance attribution de la cartera en excel, muy completo e ilustrativo. Recordar que Kelton se ha unido al equipo Odey y su fondo pasa a llamarse Odey Focus. Luego mando la info a la lista de distribución.

Un saludo, 

MC

Danske Bank

Waverton European Fund Stock Example

April 2015

Danske Bank is Denmark’s dominant Bank. We started a position in August 2013. The bank traded at  a material discount to its Scandinavian peers and we believed that investors were underestimating the  substantial improvement in its balance sheet and the opportunity to improve ROE’s by addressing the  cost base and improving income generation. A new management led by Thomas Borgen then  embarked a strategic review addressing these issues. Solid execution and a further material  improvement in Danske Bank’s balance sheet, helped by a faster than expected run down of the  problematic Irish assets and a pick-up in the Danish economy, have enabled the bank to restore  dividends and start buying back shares. Despite the significant share price gain that has accompanied  this transformation we believe that there is still considerable upside to current share price levels. In  particular, we see opportunity from further execution on cost cutting, Danish mortgage re-pricing,  optimisation of the group’s structure, improving funding costs and a return of capital to shareholders. Danske Bank got itself into significant problems during the financial crisis and then the Eurozone crisis  that ultimately required state assistance. The root of these issues were poor management, weakness  in the Danish economy and housing market, and the ill-timed 2005 acquisitions of the Irish banks  Northern Bank / National Irish Banks. These issues materially impacted the balance sheet and led to a  funding squeeze. However, over the last three years these issues have seen a considerable reversal  and the CET1 ratio now stands at a healthy 14.1%. More specifically regarding the balance sheet, the  improvement in the Irish economy has enabled a rapid run down of these assets after the  management decided to make Ireland noncore. Additionally, improvements in the Danish economy  and a stabilisation of housing prices have helped drive a collapse in the loan loss ratio, for example  down to a mere 8bp in Q1 2015, and the NPL ratio down to now circa 5%. From an operational  perspective this has enabled the group to significantly improve its funding costs, first, by repaying the  expensive state hybrid and now by refinancing the expensive rates taken up during the crisis. While  the macroeconomic backdrop is improving for Danske Bank and loan growth has now stabilised they  are currently facing a small drag from the unconventional Danish monetary policy with up to DKK900m  in 2015 from negative interest rates (we believe that mitigating factors will enable them to substantially  reduce this).  Beyond the macroeconomic landscape we believe that management still have several levers to reach  their greater than 12.5% 2018 ROE targets. First, there are opportunities to improve the franchise by  improving the slightly tarnished brand equity in Denmark, growing in Norway and turning around the  underperforming Swedish personal banking business. As we enter 2015 good progress has generally  been made here and a new management team have been deployed for Swedish personal banking.  Second, mortgage margins in Denmark are materially below other Scandinavian markets as a result of  regulation that followed Nykredit’s 2003 acquisition of Totalkredit, but this is now starting to change  and with circa 50% of income coming from net interest income this has scope to become a clear  tailwind. Third, benchmarking their cost base against their Scandinavian peers suggests room for  further improvement especially as these markets are fast evolving towards an increasingly “cashless  society.” To date the new management’s execution on costs has been impressive and the 2015 targets  for example, of below SEK22bn, remain credible. Finally, while the strategic review led to the  divestment of the Irish assets and some personal banking franchises in the Baltics we believe that  there is scope to go further in optimising the group’s structure. One such logical move would be a sale  of the Northern Irish business. 

Finally, with the improvement in balance sheet and better clarity on the Danish capital regime Danske  Bank started to pay dividends again in 2014. The strengthening of the capital position enabled them to  go further this year with the announcement if a DKK5bn buyback on top of their already attractive 4%  dividend yield.  In summary, we believe that Danske Bank has become an increasingly attractive, relatively low risk  investment trading on undemanding multiples of P/E 11x, P/B of 1.4x, a still circa 30% discount to their  highly rated Swedish peers. With the Danish market arguably now carrying less housing risk than  Sweden, and management’s continued execution on improving ROE’s towards their 2018 targets we  believe that both the earnings growth profile and capital return opportunities are undervalued by  investors. 

Danske Bank is a current holding of the Waverton European Fund as at 30 The Waverton European Fund is managed by Waverton Investment Management, which is authorised  and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This information is for professional investors only. This article is for information only and not intended  as a recommendation to enter into investment activity.

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3 comentarios
2 veces compartido

Buenos días,

Te agradecería que me añadieras a la lista de distribución, muchas gracias.

J.reboreda@yahoo.es

Buenos días,

Le agradecería que me añadiera a su lista de distribución, muchas gracias.

amaliaruiznogales@ yahoo.es

gracias Manuel. Ya recibo tus mails

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