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Cazenove es una de las gestoras boutiques más conocidas en Europa. A continuación podrán encontrar el último comentario de sus gestores de renta variable Europea Steve Cordell y Cris Rice.
El fondo PAN EUROPEO de CAZENOVE está registrado en la CNMV.
Pueden acceder a la ficha del fondo en el siguiente enlace: Ficha Pan EuropeanMarket Review
Last month we floated the idea that
the expansion phase of global manufacturing cycle may
have peaked, and the evidence from the data this month
very much backed up that proposition. US data for
manufacturing softened noticeably over May while the US
housing market seems to be slipping back into recession
as prices have now fallen below the previous low set in
2009. In the developing world the loss of momentum is
more marked. Brazilian industrial production is currently
contracting, Indian industrial production growth has
halved from +15% to around +7%, while the Chinese PMI is
clearly softening. The data has been more robust in
Europe, especially the core countries of France and
Germany, but we need not get too carried away with this
short term strength. European strength is primarily
coming from the export and manufacturing sectors, which
will respond to the lower growth in the US and Asia only
with a lag. Domestic demand is not the driver of the
current spurt of growth in Europe. In Germany exports are
growing at twice the rate of imports and domestic demand,
while capital expenditure is growing at twice the rate of
exports. Germany remains an export-oriented economy.
Indeed, it is this very export strength that "crowds
out" domestic consumption. We will not be a
bull of German domestic demand until we see wage
settlements consistently higher than current
(high) productivity. The Germans are massively
underpaid - they just don't know it yet. The best
way to play German consumer demand still seems to
be to buy Spanish hotel stocks, not German
retailers! Spanish deflation is what is making Germans
feel wealthier when they go there on holiday, not pay
increases at home.
This process is already underway but has further to go. While the market digests this process, we feel comfortable with our overweight positions in the value style. We are also overweight the growth defensive style. Here, we favour stocks whose growth is being achieved without the help of emerging economies (Campari, Novartis, Babcock). In the cyclical style we favour either later cycle stocks (ABB, Cap Gemini) or companies with an acquisitive strategy with which we feel comfortable (BIC, Publicis).
The Fund outperformed the index in
May. The more defensive bias of the market favoured the
portfolio's style, while we had some successes at the
stock level. Novartis rallied after the closure of the
Alcon deal and the technical situation weighing on the
stock was removed. Our largest overweight position
rallied 7%, though the strength of the Swiss franc made
this a double digit return in euro and sterling terms.
Campari, our third largest overweight position, rallied
7% also, reflecting upgrades to 2011 forecasts after they
reported very strong first quarter profits. The major
drag on performance came from profit-taking in the
insurance sector. We remain comfortable with our
overweight stance and have added to Munich Re during the
month, ahead of a firming market for reinsurance.
Apart from the trajectory of the cycle we, along with all investors, will have to navigate what the end of QE2 means for the market. We tend to believe that it will not have a dramatic effect on markets - we feel investors have got accustomed to the idea and, as we have argued for some time, there is little evidence it had any direct impact upon equity prices. There has clearly been an indirect effect via the reduction of the global cost of (dollar) capital to below what it would have been without QE2. We suspect the bigger influence over stocks in the coming months will be the degree to which the global economy is decelerating, and what effect that has on commodity prices. We shall be paying particularly close attention to Chinese inflation and whether the authorities succeed in meeting market expectations of falling inflation in the second half.
Unless otherwise stated all data is sourced from Cazenove Capital and DataStream. This document may include forward looking statements that are based upon our current opinions, expectations and projections. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested and may be affected by fluctuations in exchange rates. The levels and bases of tax assumptions may change. You should obtain advice on taxation where appropriate before proceeding with any investment.
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