Comentario sobre los resultados electorales en Italia
Comentario de Adrian Hilton, jefe de tasas y divisas globales de Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
El resultado de las elecciones italianas parece un poco desordenado, pero no creemos que las posibilidades de que Italia salga de la zona euro se hayan incrementado. La Liga Norte y El Movimiento 5 Estrellas han tenido muy buenos resultados, mientras que el Partido Democrático de Renzi y, lo que es más sorprendente, la Forza Italia de Berlusconi han sufrido con los resultados.
No sabremos cómo será la estructura del nuevo gobierno hasta que se confirme cómo se distribuirán los escaños parlamentarios. Ni M5E ni la coalición de centroderecha (LN / FI) pueden gobernar solos, pero parece probable que la futura administración cuente con algún rasgo antisistema o similar. La reacción de los mercados de bonos ha sido bastante restringida hasta el momento; un resultado realmente perjudicial para los mercados sería una coalición que incluyera tanto la LN como el M5E.
Tal escenario probablemente empeoraría las relaciones con la Comisión Europea, especialmente en relación con los objetivos fiscales. Pero estamos muy lejos de que Italia abandone el euro: ambas partes antisistema han moderado su euroescepticismo en los últimos meses y las encuestas continúan mostrando una mayoría popular a favor de permanecer en la UE. Los obstáculos constitucionales a un referéndum al estilo Brexit son además considerables en Italia.
Lo más probable es que veamos un período prolongado de incertidumbre y 'tira y afloja' entre partidos mientras se resuelve la situación parlamentaria. En el peor de los casos, Italia volverá a las urnas en unos meses. A pesar de esta incertidumbre, creemos que el riesgo de ruptura del euro es el más bajo en años. Y en el contexto de un crecimiento económico sólido en la zona euro, creemos que los diferenciales de bonos gubernamentales periféricos pueden seguir convergiendo suavemente hacia los del núcleo.
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