La deuda de alta rentabilidad europea ofrece margen de seguridad tras las turbulencias de 2018
Los diferenciales de la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea se duplicaron prácticamente a lo largo de 2018 en un entorno de alta volatilidad del mercado y desafiantes cambios idiosincrásicos. Como la mayoría de clases de activos el año pasado, la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea no resultó inmune a las crecientes inquietudes de los inversores en torno a cuestiones como las turbulencias geopolíticas, el respaldo de los bancos centrales, los menores precios de la energía y una ralentización de la economía global. Además, tres importantes factores idiosincrásicos afectaron a la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea. En primer lugar, las perturbaciones registradas en el ámbito del comercio electrónico siguieron debilitando a las marcas minoristas. En segundo lugar, la negatividad en torno a los mercados emergentes afectó a las empresas con gran exposición al mundo en desarrollo. Por último, las empresas con presencia en la agitada Italia, así como en otras partes del sur de Europa, también se vieron presionadas.
Mejor margen de seguridad
A pesar de que los diferenciales han caído desde más del 5 % hasta cerca del 4,4 % en lo que va de año, esta clase de activos sigue ofreciendo un margen de seguridad mucho mayor que en ningún otro momento desde mediados de 2016. Este creciente margen de seguridad llega en un momento en el que la calidad del crédito en el mercado de la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea se mantiene en niveles razonables. De hecho, con un índice de impagos históricamente bajo de tan solo el 0,4 % en 2018, el mercado de la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea resulta relativamente atractivo en comparación con sus homólogos estadounidenses, cuya tasa de morosidad se situó en el 2,3 % el año pasado. La calidad del mercado de la deuda de alta rentabilidad estadounidense es, en términos generales, más baja que la europea. Los niveles de apalancamiento del mercado de la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea se sitúan bastante lejos del periodo previo a la crisis financiera, en un contexto de tipos de interés significativamente más bajos. La combinación de niveles de apalancamiento satisfactorios y bajos tipos de interés proporciona margen suficiente para las empresas con respecto a los pagos de intereses. La rentabilidad debería registrar caídas importantes para que a las empresas les cueste hacer frente a estos pagos. Esta dinámica probablemente mantendrá los tipos de interés en niveles bastante bajos a corto plazo.
Somos conscientes de los riesgos
Naturalmente, permanecemos alerta ante la incertidumbre actual en torno al Brexit. La salida del Reino Unido de la UE nos ha llevado a adoptar una posición bastante conservadora con respecto a las empresas británicas en las que invertimos. En este sentido, hemos seleccionado oportunidades nacionales con menor riesgo de un Brexit potencialmente negativo. En concreto, hemos optado por créditos estables como compañías de agua, así como otras empresas de servicios públicos y grupos aeroportuarios.
También nos mantenemos atentos a otros acontecimientos en Europa, especialmente a la deriva populista que se observa en el continente. Italia, por ejemplo, registra una mayor debilidad económica que el Reino Unido. Es importante entender las implicaciones que pueden derivarse para el mercado de la deuda de alta rentabilidad europea.
En términos más generales, continuamos manteniendo una posición sobreponderada en deuda preferente asegurada, que ofrece mayor protección contra las caídas en caso de que observemos un deterioro del mercado. También adoptamos un enfoque conservador en relación con la exposición por países, con preferencia por los mercados del norte de Europa, que se mantienen lejos de las tendencias negativas que se aprecian en el sur del continente. Por último, en un entorno de extensión del ciclo hacia sus últimas fases a lo largo de los próximos años, resulta más prudente contar con posiciones sobreponderadas en sectores estables, como la atención sanitaria, a lo largo de espacios más cíclicos.
Sandro Näf, gestor de cartera de Nordea 1 - European High Yield Bond Fund
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