Fenómeno DeepSeek: un paso más en la IA
Jeremy Gleeson, director de inversiones en tecnología global de Allianz Global Investors
DeepSeek, una empresa privada china, ha lanzado recientemente un nuevo "modelo extenso del lenguaje" (LLM, por sus siglas en inglés), conocido como DeepSeek R1, que ha generado una reacción negativa notable en las acciones de compañías consideradas líderes en inteligencia artificial (IA). Este impacto se debe, en gran parte, a la percepción de que DeepSeek R1 es capaz de ofrecer resultados de primer nivel, pero con un coste considerablemente menor gracias al uso de menos semiconductores y de menor precio durante su proceso de entrenamiento. No sorprende la gran atención que DeepSeek ha captado en los últimos días, dada la fiebre actual en torno a la IA. Sin embargo, a la hora de identificar a los verdaderos ganadores de estos avances, somos conscientes de que no debemos sacar conclusiones precipitadas basándonos en datos limitados o en afirmaciones aisladas.
La IA generativa está todavía en una fase muy temprana, tanto en su desarrollo como en su implementación, y es habitual que tecnologías emergentes que reciben grandes inversiones presenten mejoras continuas y significativas. Esto conecta con un pilar clave de nuestra filosofía de inversión: en las etapas iniciales del desarrollo de una tecnología, es normal que los estándares evolucionen o que el rendimiento mejore de manera constante. Por ello, es esencial ser muy selectivos al invertir en tecnologías emergentes en momentos en los que resulta más complicado identificar a los ganadores a largo plazo. Aunque seguiremos viendo muchas declaraciones sobre cuál es "la mejor" IA o el modelo LLM más avanzado en los próximos meses, los avances de DeepSeek R1 destacan especialmente porque abordan directamente cuestiones relacionadas con el nivel de gasto de capital necesario en los próximos años. Si bien estas novedades han generado una reciente volatilidad a corto plazo en algunos precios bursátiles, seguimos firmes en nuestra visión de que la IA representa una megatendencia estructural a largo plazo. Es importante destacar que esta noticia llega justo cuando muchos mercados asiáticos están cerrados o a punto de cerrar debido a las celebraciones del Año Nuevo Lunar, mientras que muchas empresas occidentales están en su "quiet period" previo a la publicación de los resultados del cuarto trimestre. Por ello, estas compañías no han podido emitir una opinión inmediata sobre los últimos desarrollos en el mercado de la IA.
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