Creo que no me equivoco si afirmo, aunque cueste creerlo, que las
elecciones en Cataluña están generando más atención
entre los inversores internacionales que las del Gobierno de España
celebradas hace un año, cuando estaba claro que ganaría Rajoy por
mayoría absoluta.
Ya percibí esa sensación la semana pasada en Londres. Les preocupa
una posible victoria contundente de CIU que desemboque en el inicio de
un proceso de separación. Y lo que podría suponer no
sólo para España, sino para toda Europa.
Por ejemplo, Virginie Maissonave, gestora de renta
variable global de Schroders, lo veía un riesgo muy
importante para toda la zona euro y dice que era uno de los
motivos por los que no tenía acciones de España y otros países en
cartera: "Me preocupa mucho la separación de Cataluña,
contagiaría otras regiones... Enorme inestabilidad en Europa"
La banca de inversión internacional también está haciendo sus
cábalas. Esta mañana me ha llegado un informe de Credit
Suisse. Hace hincapié en que es la región más endeudada de España,
pero también la más rica, como se demuestra en este gráfico, con el
PIB per cápita, que demuestra que España se quedaría como un país con
menor PIB per capita que Cataluña si ésta fuera independiente:
Pero que también tiene una elevada dependencia de España para sus negocios.
Copio a continuación las conclusiones en inglés, pero las resumo antes:
- "El objetivo de Mas es un pacto fiscal más que la
independencia desde nuestro punto de vista"
- "Una mayoría absoluta reforzaría la posición negociadora de
Mas. Podría conseguir más concesiones utilizando de modo más
contundente el argumento de la indepencia".
- Si hay independencia, incluso si hay negociaciones y "Cataluña
se queda en el euro y no crea una nueva moneda, los bancos catalanes
no tendrían acceso al Banco Central Europeo y no habría protección del
ESM para esta endeudad región. Por lo tanto vemos extremadamente
improbable que CAtaluña eliga la opción extrema de declarar
unilateralmente la independencia"
- "Pero los mercados financieros podrían seguir trabajando con
el ruido secesionista mientras Mas continue intentando obtener
concesiones fiscales de Madrid después de las elecciones"
Aquí los extractos de las conclusiones de Credit Suisse:
But financial markets might need to continue putting up with
secessionist noise as Mas
tries to extract fiscal concessions out of Madrid following the election.
Fiscal austerity is at the root of the call for early elections
and also at the root of the
more secessionist fervour. Voters feel they would be better off
if they were not part of
Spain and that has prompted a surge in national sentiment and
anger at Madrid’s
perceived power grab.
Mas’ goal is a fiscal pact rather than independence in our view.
He has long sought to
re-negotiate intra-regional transfers and for Catalonia to be
able to set up its own tax
agency along the lines of Navarre and the Basque country.
Behind his call for
independence is thus political opportunism and he has already
expressed frustration that
the central government in Madrid is not offering to negotiate
given his call for a referendum.
An absolute majority for the CiU would strengthen Mas’ hand
when. He could then
attempt to get more concessions by using the independence card
more strongly. The most
recent opinion polls, however, indicate that he might fall short
of securing the absolute
majority, but there is still a large, nearly one-third, of
undecided voters.
Madrid is also playing a game of brinkmanship. With Catalonia
being the most
indebted of Spain’s regions and Catalonia fully depending on
Madrid to finance this debt
Madrid feels that it does not need to make concessions in a
hurry. Increased transfers to
Catalonia might be in the pipeline, however. The financing
system of the autonomous
regions is reviewed every five years. The last revision was done
in 2009 so the next one is
not due until 2014. But the government has already stated that
it would bring the review
forward into next year. As in 2009, when Catalonia got a larger
share of taxes raised in the
region a further increase should not be excluded. Increased
transfers could deflate some
of the nationalist zeal.
A reform of the financing of the regions which could bring about
a more federal system is
required in the view of some of the Madrid government’s
politicians. But such a reform is
unlikely to be attempted in the current legislature with the
government’s hands full trying to
comply with deficit targets and implementing an array of
structural reforms to make
Spain’s debt more sustainable and the economy more flexible and competitive.
Secession is strongly opposed by the conservative government in
Madrid. All legal
levers will be used to prevent a referendum. Should Catalonia
persevere, the extreme
case would be an illegal consultation followed by a unilateral
declaration of independence.
But given the economic costs resulting from remaining outside
the EU and euro area a
‘yes’ to independence should not be a foregone conclusion. And
even if Catalonia would
hold on to the euro and not create a new currency from the
outset, Catalonian banks
would not have access to the ECB and there would be no
protection from the ESM for this
highly indebted region. It is thus extremely unlikely that
Catalonia choses the extreme
option of declaring unilateral independence.
But financial markets might need to continue putting up with
secessionist noise as Mas
tries to extract fiscal concessions out of Madrid following the election.
