Les envíamos un artículo generado por Spectrum, filial de PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS.
Spectrum es la mayor gestora del mundo especializada en PREFERENTES en EEUU. Es un mercado de 470 bl aprox NO comparable con lo que vemos en Europa.
De hecho es bastante desconocido.
Principal Global investors gestiona 250 bl a nivel global.
European Banking Update January 27, 2012
The content of this article was provided by Spectrum Asset Management, Inc., an affiliate of Principal Global Investors®.
Spectrum is a leading manager of institutional and retail preferred securities portfolios.
The European Central Bank ("ECB") has begun to provide enhanced measures to better support lending and liquidity to the Euro-area banks through the implementation of two 36-month Longer Term Refinancing Operations ("LTRO"). The ECB has also reduced the reserve ratio from 2% to 1%, and allowed a wider set of asset-backed securities and certain bank loans to be eligible collateral. The first 3-year LTRO was allotted in December 2011 for less than €500 billion at a 1% rate. The second allotment date is scheduled at the end of February 2012. On the capital side, the European Banking Authority ("EBA") announced in December a recap plan whereby European banks would need to raise €115 billion (up from €107 billion) in new common equity as well as contingent convertible capital to reach core tier one ("CT1") ratios of 9% by mid-2012. Banks in the Periphery have the highest needs. Debt swap negotiations between Greece and its private creditors remain fluid, ahead of a March deadline when the country faces major bond redemptions. The deal aims to cut €100 billion of Greece's €350 billion debt load, and convince bondholders to accept at least a 50% write-down on their investments. If successful, Greece's debt/GDP ratio could equal Italy's 120% by 2020. We have no significant liquidity or capital shortfall concerns for any of our European bank investments- including those in Spain.
The large European banks are beginning to report 4Q11 financial performance. Our expectations include the following: 1) banks will report additional impairments on Greek government bonds, and weak investment banking revenue, but these should be offset by capital-accretive liability management exercises; 2) peripheral sovereign exposures will be further reduced, but this will be offset by weakness in loan portfolio quality; 3) deleveraging and retained earnings will lead to capital accretion, but reported regulatory capital ratios will still decline because of the transition toward Basel 3; and 4) banks should offer funding plan updates given the success of the 3-year LTRO. In short, the 4Q11 results should underscore progress the European banks are making in capital and funding, but also signal more asset stability measures. Same quarter results for U.S. banks, thus far, have been earmarked by ongoing net interest margin pressure (due to persistently low rates), improved (albeit slowing) loan quality and funding, and weaker securities trading and investment banking. Mortgage banking is experiencing weak revenues, as well as a lack of final resolution of potential liability claims for past mortgage loan practices. Expense management is paramount as top-line growth remains difficult. Federal Reserve capital stress test results (to be released March 2012) for large bank holding companies should prove to be credit positive for the U.S. banking industry.
We remain encouraged by policymakers, especially in Italy and Spain, who are working closely with European officials regarding detailed reform plans addressing budgetary and fiscal overhaul as well as labor- market reform. A Greek trajectory toward an orderly default would also lessen sovereign contagion fears. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, though slow and painful, must continue in order for near-term funding injections and capital growth to sustain the European banks. A challenge for the European Periphery is an effective balance of reform and economic growth. Meanwhile, with stronger EBA mandates and cheap ECB funding, European bank liquidity and capital continue to improve.
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